Legislative and executive branch economists met Friday to update
the forecast, which will form the basis of a general revenue estimate
they'll issue on Dec. 14. Gov. Rick Scott will use the revenue estimate
for his budget recommendations to the Legislature next year.
Economists are still predicting a slow, steady improvement
through 2022. Job growth of about 1 percent and total employment of 8
million are expected in 2013. Employment is forecast to reach about 8.5
million in 10 years. By then, the state's unemployment rate is expected
to drop to about 5.3 percent. The latest jobless rate, announced Friday,
was 8.5 percent in October.
How and if Congress reaches an agreement to avoid going over the
fiscal cliff _ which would trigger a combination of automatic tax
increases and sharp spending cuts, as stipulated by a 2011 budget
compromise _could dramatically change the state forecast, said Amy
Baker, coordinator of the Legislature's Office of Economic and
Demographic Research.
``What we're trying to do now is to make sure that we have a
fairly conservative approach going forward, knowing that whenever that
final agreement is reached, we're going to have to come back in and
re-evaluate it no matter what it is,'' Baker said.
If Congress is unable to avoid the automatic spending cuts,
Florida's many military bases and defense contractors could take a hit.
Baker said any agreement between President Barack Obama and
Congress is likely to soften that blow on the military, but it's still
likely to alter the state economic forecast.
``Ideally you hope that whatever combination of ideas they come
up with are going to be the things that have the least effect on
Florida, but we're typically not that lucky,'' Baker said.
Besides an improving employment picture, particularly for the
hard-hit construction industry, the forecast calls for continued growth
in tourism, population, motor vehicle sales and personal income.
*pictured above is Amy Baker.
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