The personnel moves, coupled with Obama's coming choice for a new
leader of the Central Intelligence Agency, will be viewed by U.S.
allies and enemies alike as signal of how he will pursue national
security in a second term. All of his choices will be subject to Senate
confirmation, which itself is a significant factor in his decisions.
The top names under consideration for defense secretary are
former Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, former top Pentagon
official Michele Flournoy, Deputy Defense Secretary Ashton Carter and
Democratic Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. Among those, Kerry is seen
as desiring the secretary of state's job more.
While Obama has made no final decisions on Cabinet vacancies, announcements could come as soon as next week.
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has made clear he did not intend
to stay for a second term but he has never publicly discussed the timing
of his departure, widely thought to be down the road in 2013. Yet
Obama's thinking on Panetta's replacement has quietly advanced, aided by
a strong list of candidates, officials said.
One senior U.S. official said Panetta is expected to stay on the
job at least through the Jan 21 inauguration ceremony for Obama, another
sign that the president is close to naming a new defense chief. The
officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not
authorized to publicly discuss internal White House thinking.
Far more political attention has centered on the chief diplomatic job of secretary of state.
Obama is believed almost certain to pick Kerry or U.N. Ambassador
Susan Rice, with Obama's considerations of his choice so closely held
that even members of his innermost circle are asking each other which
way he may go. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has long
announced her plans to leave and hopes to do so soon.
The White House is considering packaging the state and defense
choices with the flourish of a unified announcement, if the pieces come
together. The president wants to choose nominees not just on their
merits, the officials said, but on how well their styles and philosophy
mesh with other members of the Cabinet who will hold overlapping
portfolios.
That is particularly true for the leaders of state and defense.
They are the top faces of his security apparatus, the leaders who
bracket Obama at Cabinet meetings, the ones central to an integrated
approach toward coping with international crises. Officials close to
Obama said a joint announcement could present a stronger message.
For the State job, Obama has strong ties to both candidates. Rice
is a close friend, and aides say the two are in lockstep on foreign
policy. Kerry was an early backer of Obama during his 2008 presidential
bid, a valuable envoy abroad, a help in his re-election bid and a
contender to be his first secretary of state.
A big factor in Obama's decision is how much early capital he
would have to spend on a confirmation fight. While Kerry has the backing
of his longtime Senate colleagues, Rice is facing withering criticism
from some Republicans for her initial account of the deadly attack on
Americans in Benghazi, Libya, in September.
A contentious confirmation fight could send Rice into the job
with weakened support and use up some of the tough votes he may need
from allies in the Senate later. Still, Obama has already set a tone
that he may choose Rice regardless.
A decision on new leadership for the CIA is not as urgent. That's
partly because Acting Director Michael Morell is still dealing with the
fallout of David Petraeus' resignation over an extramarital affair and
the battles with lawmakers over the events that led to the death of four
Americans in Libya.
Morell is highly respected within the administration and seen as a top contender.
Other candidates are the White House's top counterterrorism and
homeland security advisor, John Brennan, and the Pentagon's top
intelligence official, Undersecretary for Defense Intelligence Michael
Vickers, a former CIA officer and Green Beret. Also possible is the
former senator Hagel, should he miss out for the top Pentagon job. Hagel
co-chairs Obama's intelligence advisory board and held senior positions
on the Senate Intelligence and Foreign Relations committees.
A near-term shakeup at the Defense Department would come as the
Pentagon faces a flurry of decisions on troop levels in Afghanistan and
budgets. The looming end-of-the year spending cuts the White House and
Congress are seeking to avert would hit the Pentagon particularly hard.
At Defense, Hagel would give Obama a whiff of bipartisanship, and
could be the only Republican in the Cabinet if Transportation Secretary
Ray LaHood leaves, as expected.
Flournoy would be the first woman to lead the Defense Department.
She served in the Pentagon under Panetta as undersecretary of defense
for policy, resigning early this year. She served as a foreign policy
adviser to Obama during his re-election campaign.
Carter, who has served as deputy defense secretary for the past year, is a protege of former Defense Secretary William Perry.