By David L. Snelling

Miami – Miami-Dade County is preparing for the likelihood of a budget crisis, projecting roughly a $400 million shortfall for the 2025-2026 fiscal year.

With state legislators clashing over sales and property tax relief proposals, and President Donald Trump administration’s deep federal funding cuts, Miami-Dade officials are scrambling to fund critical services such as police, transit, affordable housing, healthcare outreach programs for low-income residents, HIV and AIDS prevention programs, public works and the jail system.

Half of the county’s budget relies on sales, property, gas and tourism development taxes. The GOP-controlled Florida Legislature, unable to agree on a budget, has extended the legislative session until late June.

Its two chambers are $4.4 billion apart over slashing general sales tax from 6 percent to 5.75 percent to save residents about $5 billion a year, and property tax relief.

Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava said the state proposal of reducing taxes would impact 45 percent of the county’s operating budget, with the fiscal outlook particularly sensitive to proposed shifts in state-shared revenues and funding actions.

The county budget is estimated at $12.7 billion including $8 billion for operating costs and $4.7 billion in capital improvement projects.

“Though federal funds account for just six percent (6%) of the total County budget, proposed cuts could have outsized effects on key departments,” she said in a memo to county commissioners.

Levine Cava said corrections, police, fire rescue, transportation, public works, juvenile and other services would be impacted the most by the budget shortfall.

In addition, federal funding cuts would also affect county services such as the Community Action and Human Services, Housing and Community Development, Homeless Trust, and Management and Budget, that previously received 67 percent, 64 percent, 53 percent, and 58 percent, respectively, from federal sources.

Furthermore, Levine Cava said the federal government finances roughly 32 percent of the state’s budget. The uncertainty at the federal level compounds state and local budget planning and forecasting.

The Florida Policy Institute projects that without adjustments, the state could face a budget deficit ranging from $3 billion to $7 billion by fiscal year 2027-28.

Also contributing to the county’s budget problems are increased costs from new constitutional offices such as sheriff, tax collector and supervisor of elections, negotiated labor contracts, and unsustainable spending on grants and giveaways.

The county has placed a freeze on new hires and eliminated vacant positions to address the shortfall.

Despite the projected deficit, Levine Cava said she is not proposing to raise property taxes to offset the losses.

Since Levine Cava was first elected mayor in 2020 during the pandemic, the county’s previous budgets enjoyed surpluses boosted by federal COVID-19 dollars and increases in state revenue-sharing funds.

But the efforts of the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a task force designed to slash federal government spending, might sideline some of Miami-Dade’s municipal services.

The county’s plans to address the affordable housing shortage could be in peril.

Miami-Dade so far has pumped an estimated $800 million into affordable housing projects, monies from taxpayers and federal funding, but is projected to need $1.8 billion for the next fiscal year.

Trump’s administration is proposing to slash roughly $33 billion in HUD spending including affordable housing programs for local governments.

He is also nixing rental assistance programs for adults with disabilities and people living below the poverty threshold.

According to a study, the overall shortfall of affordable units for homes for households earning about $75,000 and under is 90,181 in Miami-Dade.

In addition, lack of state and federal funding impedes the county’s efforts to comply with state law which bans homelessness in public places, as Miami-Dade is gradually placing people in shelters and purchased a 107room abandoned hotel in Southwest Miami-Dade for $14 million for homeless seniors.

The Miami-Dade Homeless Trust received $50 million as part of the HUD’s Continuum of Care program.

The Trump administration is also proposing to cut an estimated $11 billion in HIV/AIDS free preventive healthcare for universities, local governments and nonprofits.

The cut is crucial to Miami-Dade since the county has among the highest rates of HIV/AIDS infection, according to the Center of Disease Control and Prevention.

Levine Cava said under the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), the county has received $16.9 million in grants through the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program, with a pending request for an additional $73.4 million

“These grants fund essential HIV/AIDS-related services, including medical care, medications, counseling, and care coordination for people with HIV,” she said.

Expenditures for transportation is another service that could be in jeopardy for Miami-Dade.

Levine Cava said eliminating and reducing the U.S. Department of Transportation’s grants for the Reconnecting Communities Program could delay key infrastructure projects aimed at addressing historical community disconnection.

That includes three pending MiamiDade applications: a $15 million grant for South Dade; a $2 million planning grant for the same initiative; and a $199,517 grant to reconnect Overtown and Downtown Miami.

Also, Miami-Dade’s Metromover, which has experienced frequent breakdowns, is currently undergoing a $153 million renovation project.

The county might decide to start charging passengers to use the service, which is free, as in previous years to offset the transit budget shortfall. Levine Cava said the budget shortfall also has potential impacts to the Community Action and Human Services Department (CAHSD) whose annual funding comes primarily from HHS, VA, DOJ, the Florida Department of Commerce, and the Department of Children and Families.

“In last year’s County budget, CAHSD received approximately $122.3 million and $2.8 million from federal and state funding sources, respectively,” she said.

She said the most significant of these agency funding sources is HHS as it undergoes a major restructuring which includes eliminating 20,000 positions, nearly 25 percent of its workforce.

Notices of Reduction in Force (RIF) have already been issued to 10,000 employees, with the remainder expected to leave through attrition.

The proposed “skinny budget” requests $93.8 billion for HHS – a cut of $33.3 billion, or 26.2 percent, from this year’s budget of $127 billion, Levine Cava said.

“These staffing reductions and broader agency restructuring will significantly affect federal program administration and grant oversight, particularly for health and human services relied upon by Miami-Dade County,” she said.

The county must also find an additional $15 million which Miami-Dade County Sheriff Rosie Cordero-Stutz is requesting to efficiently run one of the largest police departments in the U.S.

The mayor has been criticized for spending more than $50 million for the 2026 FIFA World Cup coming to Miami amid budget challenges.

Levine Cava said the event is expected to generate billions of dollars, an investment that could fill the county’s coffers for 2026-2027.