New MDW/EDGE Poll shows Florida becoming competitive as Democrats gain ground across statewide races

Miami-Dade, FLA. – A newly released statewide poll memo from MDW Communications and EDGE Communications shows a rapidly shifting political environment in Florida, with Democrats gaining ground across key races and the state once again emerging as competitive heading into 2026. The poll finds Democrats holding a narrow lead on the generic congressional ballot, with major statewide races falling within the margin of error — clear signs of a tightening map driven by economic frustration and weakening Republican advantages.

“The 2026 environment is shifting in real time, and Democrats should be energized by what we are seeing,” said Christian Ulvert, President and Founder of EDGE Communications. “NPA voters — the most coveted and hard-to-win bloc in any election — are breaking away from Republicans and moving toward Democrats in numbers we have not seen in decades. They are tired of the chaos, tired of the noise, and hungry for candidates who speak to their lives with honesty and purpose. Where Democrats show up with a clear, pragmatic vision and the ability to inspire, these voters are responding. This is a genuine opportunity, and the Democrats who seize it will reshape the map in 2026.”

Key Findings from the Poll:

  • Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 46.0% to 45.2%, with strong support among No Party Affiliation (NPA) voters
  • Major statewide races — including Governor and U.S. Senate — are within the margin of error, signaling a highly competitive environment
  • Affordability issues — including housing, property insurance, and taxes — dominate voter concerns and are reshaping the political landscape
  • President Donald Trump holds a net negative approval across key issues, from the economy to government spending, Iran military actions, ICE raids, and more — and is significantly underwater with independent voters, dragging down the GOP brand
  • Republican-backed efforts to eliminate property taxes fall short of the 60% threshold required for passage, and lose support significantly when voters are informed of the tradeoffs

The poll also highlights growing voter concern over economic conditions and government accountability, with traditional Republican advantages on the economy continuing to erode as costs rise and frustration deepens.

“Affordability remains the top issue for the Florida electorate,” said Michael Worley, President and CEO of MDW Communications. “That may mean different things to different people–housing, gas prices, property insurance, and taxes. Regardless, the clear edge Republicans have held on economic issues in Florida since COVID has gone away as costs continue to skyrocket and both Washington and Tallahassee fail to act.”

The survey, conducted March 27 – April 3, included 1,834 likely voters across Florida, weighted to reflect the state’s expected 2026 electorate. The sample mirrors Florida’s political and demographic composition, including a projected turnout model of 44% Republican, 34% Democrat, and 22% NPA or other voters, with strong representation across age groups, geographic regions, and communities statewide.